DTC Forecasting Framework You Need In 2025

Let’s talk about a word that gets thrown around in every ecom Slack channel and investor update but rarely gets done right.

Forecasting.

Not exactly a thrilling topic… until you realize it’s quietly running your entire business.

It influences how much you spend, what you scale, and whether you’re sweating bullets on the 25th or casually sipping coffee while cruising at a 3.5 ROAS.

Here’s the problem:

Most brands treat forecasting like a guessing game. It’s a gut feeling. Top-down targets. Or worse, reverse-engineered numbers built to justify a budget.

But if you want to grow profitably, your forecasting needs to be as dialed in as your ad creative.

New customer revenue is unpredictable. Platforms change. CACs swing.

So we build from the bottom up, looking at historical cohorts and average reorder rates and layering in seasonal multipliers.

That gives you a rock-solid baseline. From there, you can stack new acquisitions on top, instead of hoping it all works out.

And while it’s fun to chase 4X ROAS, contribution margin is what actually pays the bills.

If you’re spending over $10,000 a month on Meta ads for your e-commerce or SaaS business, we’re here to help you optimize your ad performance and scale your ads profitably. Apply to work with us here.

Forecasting isn’t just about predicting revenue. It’s about modeling how incremental spending affects your contribution dollars, especially when efficiency starts to drop.

Sometimes, spending at a 2X ROAS might generate more profit than sticking to a strict 3.5X. You just need to know where the breaking point is.

Then, there’s timing. Every brand has its moment, maybe it’s Mother’s Day, maybe it’s that first cold snap.

That’s why we forecast daily during promo periods but don’t overreact to a single bad Tuesday.

We zoom out. Look at 7-day pacing. Think like a marathon runner, not a sprinter.

Some weeks, you start slow, knowing the back half of the month is where the real push happens.

All of this only works if you have a single source of truth that answers three key questions:

• Are we on track?

• If not, where’s the gap? (Spend? AOV? New customers?)

• What lever can we pull today to fix it?

Because at the end of the day, forecasting isn’t just a finance exercise.

It’s one of the most powerful levers in your creative and media strategy.

When it’s off, you either overspend chasing a number that doesn’t make sense… or you underspend, underperform, and leave massive upside on the table.

Looking for a creative partner to scale your business with performance-driven ads? Apply to work with us here. Our clients include brands like For Wellness, Frido, Scribe, and others. We’ve likely worked with businesses in your niche.